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That has the ruling Saenuri Party running scared because Busan is its traditional stronghold. They fear it’s a sign of rising opposition popularity in its other strongholds like South Gyeongsang.
In a survey conducted by the JoongAng Ilbo and private research firm Embrain between Tuesday and Friday of 500 male and female adults in each district through random fixed-line and mobile numbers, the poll found Moon Jae-in, a senior advisor of the DUP, supported by 42.3 percent of likely voters in Sasang District, western Busan. Kwon Chul-hyeon, a former ruling Saenuri Party lawmaker, received 34.7 percent of the votes.
Moon Sung-keun, a member of the DUP’s Supreme Council, was supported by 41.9 percent of the respondents in Gangseo B District, western Busan, a wide lead over the 32.5 percent for likely ruling party candidate Huh Tae-yeol.
The southeastern port city of Busan is a stronghold of the ruling, conservative party along with regions in South Gyeongsang.
The ruling party is focusing on defeating Moon Jae-in. Although election history shows rare victories for liberal candidates in Busan, Moon was born in Geoje Island, located nearby, and worked as a local labor lawyer in the city during the democratization movement of the 1980s with the late President Roh Moo-hyun.
As a close aide to Roh, Moon currently chairs the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation, and a book he recently published about Roh, his relationship with the late president and their labor advocate activities in Busan became a best-seller.
In recent other polls, Moon’s popularity is soaring, especially among young voters. In one recent poll, his popularity was higher than that of Park Geun-hye, the interim head of the Saenuri Party. In some polls, his popularity was higher than that of software mogul and liberal darling Ahn Cheol-soo.
“People used to only vote for candidates from Grand National Party [the previous name of the Saenuri Party] even if they were abnormal,” Kim Mun-sik, 56-year-old Busan taxi driver, told the JoongAng Ilbo. “But these days, people are talking a lot about Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo.”
The ruling party is worried that a liberal elected in Busan could rise as the frontrunner for the presidential election in December.
“We are wondering whether to select a high-profile figure to combat Moon or a local high-ranking official well-known in the region,” a Saenuri Party official told the JoongAng Ilbo yesterday. “Sasang District is one of our important target places which we shouldn’t lose, but we are still pondering selecting the right candidate.”
Sources say some ruling party lawmakers are considering Moon Dae-sung, a former taekwondo athlete who won a gold medal at the Olympics in Athens in 2004, to take on Moon. The party thinks the life story of the sportsman, who overcame poverty in his youth to become a professor at Dong-A University in Busan, could appeal to ordinary voters.
In Gimhae B District, South Gyeongsang, Kim Gyeong-su, a senior director of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation, also received 40.9 percent support in the poll, beating out 34 percent for the Saenuri Party’s Kim Tae-ho, who was born in the province.
Analysts said the poll was based on the assumption that the voters will have a choice among three candidates, including those of the Unified Progressive Party.
Among five electoral districts in Seoul where the telephone poll was conducted, the opposition Democratic United Party prevailed in Jongno, Dobong A and Dongjak B.
The ruling Saenuri Party led in Eunpyeong B and Seodaemun B.
Political analysts say that once liberal parties manage to unite in backing candidates, they appear to have a higher chance of winning the general election.
By Kim Hee-jin, Shin Chang-woon [heejin@joongang.co.kr]
한글 관련 기사
문재인·문성근 PK서 돌풍…새누리 휘청
서울 지역도 민주당이 우세
중앙일보가 4·11 총선 지역구 10곳을 선정해 가상 대결을 실시한 결과 부산·경남(PK)지역 조사 대상 세 곳(부산 사상, 부산 북-강서을, 경남 김해을)에서 모두 민주통합당의 문재인 상임고문과 문성근 최고위원, 김경수 노무현재단 봉하사업본부장이 새누리당 후보보다 강세인 것으로 나타났다. 서울에선 새누리당과 민주통합당 후보 간 접전구도 속에 민주통합당이 두 곳(종로·도봉갑), 새누리당이 두 곳(은평을·서대문을)에서 우세했다. 조사는 중앙일보 조사연구팀과 엠브레인이 지난 7~10일 선거구별 성인 남녀 500명을 대상으로 실시했다.
조사 결과 부산 사상에 출마한 문재인 고문은 42.3%의 지지를 얻어 34.7%의 지지를 얻은 새누리당 권철현 전 의원을 7.6%포인트 차로 눌렀다. 부산 북-강서을에선 문성근 최고위원이 41.9%의 지지율로 새누리당 허태열 의원(32.5%)을 9.4%포인트 차로 따돌렸고, 경남 김해을에선 김경수 봉하사업본부장이 40.9%로 새누리당 김태호 의원(34.0%)을 앞섰다. <부산·경남 민심 르포 6면>
이번 조사가 새누리당과 민주통합당 후보뿐만 아니라 통합진보당, 무소속 후보까지 포함한 다자대결 구도로 진행됐음을 감안할 때 민주통합당과 통합진보당 등 범야권이 선거 연대에 성공할 경우 판세에 어떤 영향을 미칠지 주목된다.
총선 최대 승부처인 수도권의 경우 서울 종로에선 민주통합당 정세균 의원이 30.6%의 지지율로, 21.3%의 새누리당 조윤선 의원보다 앞섰다. 도봉갑의 경우 민주통합당 후보로 거론되는 인재근(김근태 전 의원 부인)씨가 30.3%의 지지율로 1위를 기록했다. 새누리당 신지호 의원은 19.5%였다. 동작을에선 민주통합당 이계안 전 의원(36.4%), 새누리당 정몽준 의원(36.2%) 간 초박빙의 접전이 펼쳐졌다. 반면 은평을에선 새누리당 이재오 의원(34.0%)이 민주통합당 김성호 지역위원장(20.5%)을, 서대문을에선 새누리당 정두언 의원(34.0%)이 민주통합당 김영호 지역위원장(28.0%)을 제쳤다.
이 밖에 대구 수성갑에선 새누리당 이한구 의원(38.3%)이 민주통합당 김부겸 의원(15.9%)을, 광주 서을에선 민주통합당 김영진 의원(33.1%)이 통합진보당 오병윤 전 사무총장(13.6%)과 새누리당 이정현 의원(11.9%)을 각각 20%포인트 가까운 격차로 앞섰다.[중앙일보]